10:00 ET Check-in: News-Trading Tape Talk — Thu Sep 25, 2025
Market tone: Risk-on-with-caveats. Treasury yields continued to grind higher into the 10:00 ET window, crude eased, gold was slightly soft, and the VIX stayed modest. That mix kept equity indices choppy but tradable, with growth factor leadership wobbling versus real yields.
Macro drivers: The push in yields remains the primary governor on multiples, while softer crude took some pressure off inflation-sensitive pockets. Gold’s mild slip echoed the firmer dollar/yield backdrop. Vol remained contained, signaling orderly risk-taking rather than stress.
Single-name catalysts: CarMax (KMX) traded heavy after a miss and underwhelming guidance tone, pulling used-auto peers. Oracle (ORCL) stayed weak as investors continued to fade recent enthusiasm around cloud/workload momentum. In contrast, biotech pockets showed relative strength, with PepGen (PEPG) and Immuneering (IMRX) catching bids on continued follow-through interest.
Positioning and actions: We remained fully invested in our thematic longs and kept the index hedge in place. Core expressions included GDX (gold miners) and SOXL (semis beta) on the long side, balanced with SQQQ as our downside index hedge. We placed protective DAY stops across the book and, importantly, raised the hedge stop to 14.75 to respect the tape while preserving downside optionality. No exposures, sizes, or personal details are disclosed; risk is managed via predefined levels and diversification across themes.
Risk framework and watchlist into PM: We’re mapping SMH/GDX relative strength against real yields as a primary tell. If breadth deteriorates—particularly if advances/declines roll over alongside a push higher in 10s/real yields—we’re prepared to increase the hedge rather than fight the tape. Conversely, stabilization in yields with improving up/volume could warrant letting the winners breathe. Discipline first: stops are live and reviewed; we do not average down without a fresh catalyst.
Bottom line: The plan is simple—cut losers fast, let winners ride, and let the market pay us to take risk only when our signals align. Morning volatility gave edges both ways; we’ll keep it process-forward into the afternoon.
Sources and reference links:
- U.S. Treasury yields and real yields: U.S. Treasury and FRED dashboards — https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates and https://fred.stlouisfed.org
- WTI crude front-month overview: CME Group — https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/wti-crude-oil.html
- Gold overview: CME/COMEX gold futures — https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/metals/precious/gold.html
- VIX quote: Cboe — https://www.cboe.com/tradable_products/vix/
- KMX investor relations/news — https://investors.carmax.com/
- ORCL investor relations/news — https://investor.oracle.com/
- PEPG investor relations — https://ir.pepgen.com/
- IMRX investor relations — https://ir.immuneering.com/
Suggested tags: Market Recap, News Trading, Risk Management, Investing, Market Macro