2025-11-23 AM — Weekend Prep: Let the Process Drive, Not the Predictions

Setting up the board before the bell rings on Monday

With markets closed this Sunday, the job isn’t to guess Monday’s open. It’s to make sure the portfolio can survive whatever shows up.

Macro: Mildly Risk-On, No New Shock

The big picture going into Monday is constructive but not euphoric:

• Yields and the dollar are a bit softer, which generally supports equities and especially growth names.
• Gold is firm, a reminder that demand for safety and inflation hedges hasn’t vanished.
• Oil is weaker, easing some inflation pressure but also hinting that growth expectations aren’t exploding higher.

Net-net, that’s a mildly risk-on backdrop with no obvious new macro shock to react to. The goal isn’t to over-interpret every tick in futures; it’s to know where you’ll act if the tone changes.

Portfolio Shape: Deliberately Skewed to AI & Growth

The account is small, fully invested, and intentionally tilted toward AI and broader growth:

• Core AI/growth sleeve: $AAPL, $NVDA, $QQQ
• Balance & diversification: $GE (industrial), $XOM (energy), $WMT (defensive retail), $CCJ (uranium)
• Systemic hedge: a modest $UVXY position

The key phrase is “by design.” The overweight in AI/growth isn’t a mistake or a drift; it’s the chosen risk. The real work is making sure that if the growth trade sours, there’s a clear, rules-based way to rotate rather than freeze.

Risk Framework: Floors, Not Feelings

Every stock in the portfolio has a strict, raise-only manual floor. These are line-in-the-sand levels based on daily closes, not intraday noise:

• $AAPL: 263
• $GE: 297
• $NVDA: 182
• $QQQ: 600.75
• $WMT: 103
• $CCJ: 75.05
• $XOM: 11.41

For $UVXY, the rule isn’t a price floor but a size band: keep it between roughly 2.5–3.5% of equity. UVXY is treated as a systemic hedge, not a short-term trade to outsmart volatility. If the rest of the book is climbing and UVXY bleeds, that’s the cost of protection, not a signal to “fix” it.

Execution rule: exits only trigger when the prior daily close is below the floor. That keeps decisions tied to closing data and avoids intraday whipsaws that can wreck a small account.

Rotation Logic: Floors as Fuel, Not Suggestions

The temptation when a position cracks its floor is to quietly move the level down “just this once.” That’s how a small, speculative account turns into a long-term bagholder fund.

Instead, the rule set here is:

1. If a name closes below its floor, it becomes a rotation candidate, not a charity case.
2. Clusters matter: if $QQQ, $NVDA, and $GE start closing below levels together, that’s a signal that the current AI/growth tilt may be out of sync with the tape.
3. When that happens, the default is to recycle capital into other themes—housing/cyclicals, more defensives, or non-AI growth—rather than doubling down on the same trade or loosening risk rules.

The floors are not opinions; they are commitments. If the market disagrees, the portfolio votes with its feet.

Process Over Prediction: Monday’s 10:00 ET Checklist

No one knows how Monday’s open will look. That’s fine, because the plan doesn’t depend on nailing the open; it depends on what happens by 10:00 ET.

The Monday playbook:

1. Sync prices after the first 30 minutes – Let the opening noise settle a bit. Around 10:00 ET, pull in updated prices across all positions.
2. Check floors against the prior close – Any name that already closed below its floor on Friday is on the chopping block. If Monday confirms that weakness, exits happen per rule.
3. Enforce the UVXY band – If UVXY has drifted outside the 2.5–3.5% equity band because of price moves, size it back into range.
4. Only then look for new rotations – Fresh ideas (housing, cyclicals, more defensives, non-AI growth) come after risk has been cleaned up, not before. The goal is to rotate from a position of control, not from denial.

Why This Matters for a Small, Speculative Account

With a small, fully invested book, every mistake compounds fast. The edge isn’t secret research; it’s discipline applied to a simple, transparent framework:

• Know the macro backdrop, but don’t worship the headlines.
• Overweight where you believe the edge is (here, AI/growth), but respect the floors.
• Treat clusters of breaks as rotation signals, not reasons to move the goalposts.
• Let each day’s process (like Monday’s 10:00 ET check) drive actions, not vibes.

The point of this weekend prep isn’t to predict Monday. It’s to make sure that when Monday shows up—bullish, bearish, or sideways—the portfolio already knows how to respond.

Nothing here is investment advice. This is a description of one speculative, rules-based process for educational purposes only.