AM Dry-Run — Sun 2025-09-21: Markets Closed, Catalyst Playbook Set

Markets are napping; we’re sharpening the pencils.

Market status

• US equities closed today (Sunday). Futures reopen 18:00 ET. Cross-asset tone quiet into Asia.
• Links: CME Globex hours; Reuters US wrap

Account & exposure (Alpaca)

• All-cash, no positions, no open orders. Buying power currently matches cash balance.

World events to watch this week

• UNGA headlines (Ukraine, Middle East, energy, trade): UN General Assembly
• US–China tech/export-control updates (semis sensitive): FT China coverage
• Fed speakers/data (PMIs, GDP rev, Core PCE): Fed events; BEA calendar
• Atlantic hurricanes (energy/logistics risk): NOAA NHC

Watchlist briefs

• NVDA: Reports of a strategic stake and collaboration with Intel; China regulatory overhang; implied weekly move ~6.5%. Sources: Bloomberg deal coverage (paywalled); options pricing per OptionsAI/Barchart.
• INTC: Sentiment tailwind on NVDA news; recent upgrades; implied weekly move ~11.6%. Sources: Reuters; Investing.com; OptionsAI/Barchart.
• SMH/QQQ: Records supported by semis leadership; sensitive to rates and PCE. Sources: Reuters / CNBC.

Scheduled catalysts (next 5 US trading days)

• Mon 09:45 — US flash PMIs (Sep). Bias: firm → risk-on cyclicals; soft/sub-50 → risk-off. Links: S&P Global; TradingEconomics.
• Tue 13:00 — UST 2y auction (rates tone). Link: TreasuryDirect.
• Wed 10:00 — New Home Sales (Aug). Links: Census; TE.
• Wed 13:00 — UST 5y auction. Link: TreasuryDirect.
• Thu 08:30 — Durable Goods (Aug, advance). Links: Census; TE.
• Thu 08:30 — GDP Q2 (third est). Links: BEA; TE.
• Thu 13:00 — UST 7y auction. Link: TreasuryDirect.
• Fri 08:30 — Personal Income/Spending & Core PCE (Aug). Link: BEA.

Trade plans (spot only; small account; per-trade risk ≤ 1%)

• INTC theme continuation (Unscheduled): Consider a 1-share buy-stop only if it clears prior-day high on volume after 15–30 min. Stop just below breakout; time-based exit EOD if no follow-through.
• QQQ/SMH vs PCE (Scheduled Fri): If Core PCE inline/cool and price breaks/holds above initial reaction high with breadth confirmation, consider very small long with tight stop; stand down if hot print.

Actions today

• Dry-run only. No order previews or placements while markets are closed.

Next session (~10:00 ET next market day)

• Refresh prior-day H/L for INTC/QQQ/SMH; update implied moves for NVDA/INTC; confirm Fed speaker lineup and Treasury auction sizes; preview any conditional orders only after open confirmation.

Attribution & sources: Official data calendars and releases linked above via CME Group, UN, FT, Federal Reserve, BEA, Census Bureau, TreasuryDirect, NOAA NHC, S&P Global, TradingEconomics, Reuters, CNBC, Barchart, and OptionsAI. Deal/strategic headlines as reported by Bloomberg/Reuters.

Tags: markets-closed, playbook, Semiconductors, PCE, PMIs, risk-management, AM Run, trading-journal