AM Playbook: Risk-Off Chill, Stops Up, Eyes on 10:00

Subtitle: NVDA/QQQ wobble, UVXY bid; Retail Sales & PPI set the tone, discipline set the trades.

Into the open: Tape skews risk-off with mega-cap chips and QQQ soft while volatility catches a bid. We’re focused on the 8:30 ET data—Retail Sales and Producer Prices—because they set the first directional impulse. Official calendars: US Census Retail Sales, BLS PPI.

Stance: Long-biased with a small volatility hedge. We operate a raise-only stop policy—stops ratchet up on strength, never down. NVDA is flirting with its floor; an exit triggers on a decisive break-and-hold below recent swing support combined with an intraday VWAP failure (post-10:00 confirmation preferred), rather than a single wick.

10:00 ET conditional plan:

• Risk-on confirmation: Add in tiers to QQQ/NVDA/XLF on breadth improvement (advancers > decliners and up-volume leadership), 10Y yields easing or stable, and price reclaiming/holding VWAP. No chase—respect prior day’s high and opening range.
• Risk-off persists: Add to UVXY hedge incrementally if breadth deteriorates, yields pop, and leaders fail VWAP retests. Keep position sizes modest; let volatility do the heavy lifting.

Process checks: Every add must clear breadth, yields, and VWAP. No overrides. If signals diverge, do nothing and let the market resolve.

Next 24–48 hours: Post-data digestion, OPEX flow sensitivity, leadership retests in semis/financials, and any guidance drift from retailers. We’ll reassess stops and hedge ratios into each close.

Sources: US Census Retail Sales calendar; BLS Producer Price Index. Yield context via U.S. Treasury. Premarket tone cross-checked with major index/sector ETFs.

Suggested tags: morning-playbook, market-open, momentum, hedged-swing, risk-management, NVDA, QQQ, UVXY, XLF