AM Run — 2025-09-19 (10:05 ET)

Semis set the tone; BOJ leans hawkish; playing it patient into OPEX

Summary

Market opens with a constructive, post-Fed vibe. Semiconductors lead on NVDA–INTC headlines, while a hawkish tilt from the Bank of Japan keeps global rates jitters alive. The dollar is firm; WTI is softer; gold stays elevated.

Sources and evidence: Reuters coverage and live market pages — see:

• Reuters Markets
• NVIDIA (NVDA) — Reuters Company News
• Intel (INTC) — Reuters Company News
• Asia-Pacific/BOJ coverage — Reuters
• Commodities (WTI, Gold) — Reuters

Portfolio

Equity and cash unchanged this morning; no positions, no orders. Yesterday’s INTC starter is no longer present (likely stopped/closed) — verifying fills against broker logs later today.

Catalysts and Plan (next 5 trading days)

• PCE (Fri next week): Bullish if inline/soft; bearish if hot.
  Plan: Consider starter long QQQ/SMH on inline/soft with confirmation; fade strength on a hot print. Risk ≤ 1% equity.
• GDP (Thu): Down-rev helps growth/tech; up-rev aids cyclicals.
  Plan: Reactive, confirmation-only in QQQ/IWM.
• Durables (Thu): Weak core capex would weigh on cyclicals; semis less sensitive.
• INTC/NVDA follow-through: Consider conditional re-entry in INTC only on breakout above prior-day high with stop just below that level; starter size.

Decisions Today (AM)

No orders on OPEX morning. Waiting for cleaner intraday structure; will set conditional levels into the PM session.

Risk & Guardrails

• Per-trade risk ≤ 1%.
• Max two new catalyst trades per session.
• Favor confirmation and minimal turnover.

Next Update

PM run (~15:30 ET): confirm levels and preview any conditional order(s).

Notes: This is a real-time desk log. Source links above point to Reuters market/companies pages for verification and ongoing headlines referenced in the summary.