AM Run: Nov 12, 2025 — Risk-On Open, Tech Bounces, Crude Softer
Risk-on at the bell. Tech/AI is catching a bid and leadership rotates back toward the semis, while crude eases — a friendlier backdrop for beta. Headlines point to incremental progress on government funding talks, enough to keep the tape leaning green into the open.
Calls and actions: We exited $DRIP on discipline after a close below our floor — no debate, rules first. Initiated a small $XLF long as a starter for a potential financials rotation. Maintain a long bias in $NVDA, $QQQ, $AAPL, and $GE as the AI/industrial momentum lane remains intact. UVXY hedge stays on but small; it’s a seatbelt, not a parachute.
Risk management: Raise-only manual stop policy remains in effect — no lowering stops. We’ll recalibrate ATR-based stops later today to reflect the latest volatility. DRIP exit rule was binary: a confirmed close under the level triggers a clean exit, period.
What we’re watching next: follow-through in AI/semis breadth; continued progress on the shutdown resolution path on the Hill; PPI and Retail Sales prints; and whether crude’s softer tone persists — that mix sets the session’s skew.
Positioning notes: Keeping adds incremental and fades mechanical. If tech breadth fails, we’ll tighten risk on beta and let the UVXY seatbelt do its job. If financials rotation builds, we’ll scale XLF gradually, not hero-size it.
Process > predictions. Trade the reaction, not the story.
Sources and reference calendars:
- BLS Producer Price Index release schedule: https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/ppi.htm
- U.S. Census Retail Sales release schedule: https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/marts_current.html
- WTI front-month contract details (for crude tone): CME Group
- Congress.gov appropriations and funding tracker: https://www.congress.gov/appropriations