AM Session: Mixed Open, Thin Tape, Tactical Rotations — 2025-11-11
Mixed open on a thin Veterans Day tape
Equities opened mixed into lighter liquidity with the U.S. bond market largely offline for Veterans Day. Expect wider spreads and faster moves in the first hour. Reference: NYSE trading hours/holidays; SIFMA holiday guidance for U.S. fixed income.
Sector tone: tech/AI leadership is wobbly on headline risk — chatter around a major holder rebalancing exposure to AI chips and a cooler near-term cadence from a key foundry has traders fading strength. We’re watching how semis digest supply-chain updates and positioning shifts. For background: SoftBank newsroom; TSMC news & releases.
Commodities: oil is steady-to-soft, gold is holding Monday’s pop as haven bids linger. Live dashboards: WTI, Gold futures.
Portfolio stance into the open
Carrying a balanced but tilted book: AAPL, NVDA, GE, QQQ for growth/AI beta; BMY for defensive healthcare; DRIP as a tactical anti-oil expression; UVXY as a volatility hedge. The aim: participate if the tape firms while keeping shock absorbers in place.
10:00 ET Action — Rotated BMY ➜ XLF
At 10:00 ET, we exited BMY and redeployed into XLF (financials). Rationale: pharma M&A tone is constructive broadly, but BMY-specific momentum is stalling; with rates volatility subdued on the holiday and cyclicals perking up on stabilization hopes, we prefer financials’ operating leverage to a firmer tape. We’ll reassess if breadth rolls over.
Risk framework
- Raise-only stops across the book; no stop loosening on drawdowns.
- UVXY hedge capped near ~3% of equity to avoid bleed; adjust only if vol-of-vol spikes.
- ATR-based floors set; will refresh on the next run to reflect current liquidity and volatility.
Trade plan: next few days
- Cautious on AI leadership rips — fade extensions into resistance unless market internals broaden.
- Keep DRIP as a tactical anti-oil lever while crude stays heavy.
- Ride QQQ/NVDA if the tape firms and breadth improves; let winners run with trailing, raise-only stops.
- Hedge fast on macro shocks (policy headlines, geopolitical jolts, or unscheduled guidance); we will up-armor via index puts/vol if needed.
One-liner: Stay fully invested, aggressively paranoid.
Sources and live references: