AM Session Pulse: Risk-On With AI Setting the Pace

Market tone: Risk-on and accelerating. AI-led bid pushed mega-cap chips to the front as breadth improved and dip-buyers stayed active.

Posture: Fully invested, with a deliberate semiconductor overweight (NVDA/AMD/SMH leading). Kept a small UVXY hedge on for shock risk and maintained a tactical DRIP energy short into supply/curve headwinds. Stops raised across winners to lock in gains without choking momentum.

What moved us: Morning follow-through after data kept the soft-landing narrative intact. Tech outperformed, semis showed clean relative strength, and cyclical laggards stabilized.

Into the close – plan:

• Monitor PCE and jobless-claims aftershocks for any growth/inflation re-pricing.
• Watch VIX and DXY for risk appetite confirmation; risk stays on while volatility and dollar remain contained.
• Gauge SMH leadership vs. QQQ/SPY—semis need to keep the baton.
• Potential adds to NVDA/AMD/AVGO on orderly flags when buying power frees up; no chasing breakouts.
• Keep trailing stops tight to protect morning gains.

Sources: PCE release calendar (BEA): bea.gov; Weekly jobless claims (DOL): dol.gov; VIX overview (Cboe): cboe.com; DXY reference: marketwatch.com; Semiconductor trend proxy (SMH): VanEck.

Takeaway: AI leadership + contained vol = stay long, press the edge, and let stops do the talking.