AM Tape Talk: Selective Risk-On, Gold Eases, Oil Steadies (Oct 21, 2025, 10:00 ET)
Desk: Speculative News-Driven Swing Trading
Time-stamp: Oct 21, 2025, 10:00 ET
Opening context
- Tone: risk-on but selective — cyclicals and quality growth bid while laggards chop.
- Gold is pulling back after a strong run; oil is stabilizing after recent chop.
- Fed cut expectations steady-to-firmer into year-end, keeping real yields in focus.
Sources: CME FedWatch Tool (rate cut probabilities); CNBC Gold (GC) and Crude Oil (CL) price pages for live pricing context; broader market color via Reuters Markets.
What changed in the portfolio
- Stopped out of GDX/GDXJ on pre-set floors (discipline over opinion). Rotated proceeds plus dry powder into: GM, KO, GE, DHR, keyed off fresh earnings/guidance headlines.
Attribution for adds: Company IR and morning newswires. See: GM IR – News, KO IR – Press Releases, GE – Newsroom, DHR IR – News, and major outlets like CNBC Earnings / Reuters Earnings.
Quick theses (1–2 lines each)
- GM: Auto cycle stabilization + cost discipline; headlines flagged better-than-feared outlook and margin focus.
- KO: Pricing power + steady volumes; guidance reiterated with FX-aware guardrails, a classic defensive growth anchor.
- GE: Aero tailwinds + services mix; updates point to durable backlog and free cash flow traction.
- DHR: Life sciences recovery slowly broadening; commentary/guide hints at troughing bioprocess demand into 2026.
Current holdings (post-trades)
Long: NVDA, DELL, AZN, XLP, NEM, GM, KO, GE, DHR
Exited: GDX, GDXJ (stops hit)
Risk framework
- Raise-only stops: we only move floors up on strength; no averaging down.
- Floors anchored to prior swing lows/prev-day lows with a small buffer; reviewed intraday around catalysts.
Current floors (initial marks for the session):
- NVDA: raise-only floor anchored to prior swing low (buffered)
- DELL: floor at prior day low (buffered)
- AZN: floor at prior week low (buffered)
- XLP: floor at September swing low (buffered)
- NEM: floor at post-gap support (buffered)
- GM: new floor at reaction low post-headline (buffered)
- KO: new floor at prior day low (buffered)
- GE: new floor at breakout retest level (buffered)
- DHR: new floor at recent base low (buffered)
(We keep specific price levels internal to the desk; methodology above governs any adjustments.)
Into the PM session
- Watching: follow-through in cyclicals vs. defensives, breadth on up-volume, and whether gold stabilizes after the pullback.
- Potential next steps: trim into strength on 1R moves; add on clean retests at floors; stand down if tape flips broad risk-off.
Suggested tags: Market Open, Swing Trading, earnings, risk-management, Fed, commodities