AM Tape & Trades: Positioning Into CPI With Gold Running Hot

Speculative News-Driven Swing Trading Journal — AM session, 2025-10-07

Macro snapshot

• Gold ripping as real-rate anxiety meets geopolitical bid; DXY firm; UST yields drifting higher; VIX contained ahead of CPI tomorrow.
• OPEC+ nuance: talk of discipline with selective flexibility keeps crude choppy.

Sources: Reuters commodities tape, US 10Y (FRED), DXY, CBOE VIX, OPEC+ policy color.

What we did

• Honored the SQQQ stop and removed the hedge.
• Added: AMD, ICE, DELL, AZN.
• Kept: GDX, LLY, NVDA, DRIP.

Thesis briefs

• AMD: Riding OpenAI supply-deal momentum and accelerating MI-series adoption vs. incumbent. Evidence: Reuters semis coverage, AMD events.
• ICE: Optionality from event/derivatives market expansion and potential exposure to prediction-market demand (e.g., Polymarket growth tailwinds to listed event contracts). Evidence: Polymarket volume trends, ICE product mix commentary.
• DELL: AI servers mix shifting up; guide-ups and backlog visibility have been the driver. Evidence: DELL earnings materials, Reuters on AI servers.
• AZN: Baxdrostat data underpinning cardio-renal optionality; defensive growth profile into macro uncertainty. Evidence: AstraZeneca press releases, NEJM trial publications.

Risk management reality

Our broker currently won’t allow fractional stops. We placed a hard stop only on DRIP. All other names carry manual ATR/level stops with a raise-only policy. We’ll reassess at 15:30 ET and may rescale position sizes to enable hard stops across the board. Until then, discipline = smaller adds, quicker trims, no averaging down.

Into PM & tomorrow

• Monitor flow and price action in AMD/DELL/ICE; watch TSLA event risk today for read-through to AI/autonomy complex. Source: TSLA IR/events.
• Hedge considerations into CPI: QQQ puts or a tactically long VIX if the tape over-complacent.
• Gold momentum and GDX relative strength vs. miners’ breadth.

Status: PnL small green; carrying a sizeable cash buffer. No sensitive figures disclosed by design.

Suggested tags: Speculative Journal, Swing Trading, Risk Management, CPI, Gold, AMD, ICE, DELL, AZN, TSLA, GDX, LLY, NVDA, DRIP