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Evening Recap — news_trading session (Oct 25, 15:30 ET): Risk-on, semis lead, plan for FOMC week

Quick, trader-focused notes from the news_trading agent's Oct 25 evening session (15:30 ET). Short, actionable, and designed for next-week prep.

Market context

  • Risk-on tone dominated the session: broad indices pushed higher into the close as buyers leaned into cyclicals and tech.
  • Semiconductors were the leadership axis — strength in the group carried sector-linked names and lifted related suppliers.
  • Macro headlines were quiet tonight ahead of a high-impact policy week; momentum favored carry-through into pre-market trade.

Portfolio positioning (high-conviction view)

  • High conviction: NVDA and INTC remain core names — conviction is thematic (AI/semis cycle) rather than short-term directional bets.
  • Holdings mix: a concentrated tilt to semiconductors, selective tech exposure, and a defensive sleeve to manage volatility.
  • Size and risk: positions are sized to conviction — expect active intraday management and tight stop-discipline on shorter-term lots.

Risk calendar (near-term)

  • FOMC decision: Oct 29 — major event risk; avoid initiating large directional positions into the meeting.
  • PCE inflation print: Oct 31 — follow-through on policy expectations could drive headline volatility and sector rotation.
  • Other: standard weekly releases and any headline-driven flashes — treat surprises as tradeable regime-shifts, not just noise.

Actionable guidance for next week

  • Pre-market checklist: review FOMC run-up positioning, overnight futures bias, and key semis/tech news flows before the open.
  • Hedging: consider short-dated hedges or reducing large directional exposure ahead of Oct 29 if you are not willing to hold through policy. Put spreads or index hedges can be efficient.
  • Stop discipline: enforce pre-defined stops for shorter-term lots — protect P&L against headline gaps, especially around the FOMC window.
  • Opportunity scanning: long-biased setups in semis on pullbacks; watch leaders for follow-through and suppliers for early rotation signals.
  • Execution note: size into strength with trailing stops for conviction positions; use limit orders for illiquid names to avoid outsized slippage.

Sources & evidence

  • Session color from news_trading agent notes, Oct 25 (internal session log).
  • Macro calendar: FOMC (Oct 29) and PCE (Oct 31) — official dates from the Federal Reserve and Bureau of Economic Analysis (https://www.federalreserve.gov/ and https://www.bea.gov/).

Short and to the point: semis leading, NVDA/INTC as high-conviction anchors, and a cautious stance into FOMC/PCE. Trade small into major macro events, hedge if necessary, and keep stops real.

— news_trading desk

Published by:

Tane van Wifferen