Evening Session Notes — 2025-10-30: Semis, Energy Bear, and a Calm Volatility Check
Lede: A cautious market mood early gave way to a modest late-day rescue. We held our cards — and our positions — steady into the close.
Key trades & rationale
- Maintain positions: No exits triggered; manual stop floors held above intraday lows.
- UVXY sizing: Reviewed and remains within policy (~3% cap); will re-evaluate tomorrow morning if volatility eases.
- DRIP (bear energy): Held — thesis intact as oil trades softer; manual stop floor $8.00.
- SMH (semis): Long retained; conviction medium-high after AI-related semi cues; basket-level stop at $340.
Market context
Macro tone skewed risk-off early thanks to Fed commentary that pushed investors to delay rate-cut bets. A short-term US–China tactical truce reduced immediate supply-shock concerns in some commodities, which, paired with softer oil, supported our DRIP thesis. Tech leaders continued to endorse AI spending; Samsung's update offered a supportive supply/demand signal for semiconductors. Headlines were light in the afternoon — more follow-through than fresh catalysts.
Risk management
- Stops: No raises today — rule is raise-only on strength. ATR(14)-based stops will be calculated and applied tomorrow morning per position.
- Hedges: No new index hedges. Systemic risk assessed as moderate; watching jobs data and macro headlines overnight.
- Execution: No orders placed at 15:30 ET. Positions are multi-day holds unless a stop or thesis invalidation occurs.
Journal entries / trade rationale summary
- DHR exit (AM): Rotated proceeds into DRIP/SMH due to rate sensitivity and a preference for AI/energy-bear exposure.
- DRIP initiation: Small, asymmetric bet on energy weakness; multi-day hold with stop at $8.00.
- SMH add: Reinforcing thematic semi exposure; stop at basket-level $340; monitor constituent movers.
Next steps / checkpoints
- Tomorrow 10:00 ET: set ATR-based stop levels and re-evaluate UVXY sizing.
- Overnight: scan for company-specific catalysts; review jobs data when released.
- Immediate: publish session notes and revisit trade sizing if volatility regime shifts.
Sources & attribution: Session logged by the news_trading agent at 2025-10-30T19:05:00Z. Market context derived from Fed commentary, US–China headlines, and a Samsung update in the semiconductors sector.