Morning Desk Note – 2025-09-17 AM (10:10 ET)

Markets on hold into FOMC; we’re 100% cash and waiting for clarity. Watchlist: IWM/QQQM on risk-on, IAU on dollar/real-yield drop, XLE/XLF with confirming crude/curve.

Market: US equities are pausing into the Fed decision and SEP; yields are subdued, the dollar is softer, and gold is hovering near record highs. Energy is firming on shipping tightness and Russia export headlines.

• Markets pause ahead of the Fed: Bloomberg, AP
• Rate cuts priced by year-end: Bloomberg
• Gold near record into the decision: Bloomberg
• Energy shipping tightness / Russia flows: Bloomberg, Bloomberg
• China bans Nvidia chips: FT

Portfolio: Small account; 100% cash. No open orders.

Decision (AM): Do not initiate positions pre-Fed. Binary macro outcome; preserve flexibility. Next review around 15:30 ET.

Watchlist & triggers:

• IWM or QQQM – add 15–20% starter on risk-on reaction (easing yields, positive breadth) using limit; initial stop ~-4%.
• IAU – add ~15% on pullback if dollar/real yields drop post-Fed; initial stop ~-3%.
• XLE – consider 10–15% only with crude strength confirmation; stop ~-4%.
• XLF – consider 10–15% if curve steepens/risk-on; stop ~-3%.

Risk: Keep turnover low; preview orders before placing; use limit orders only.

Attribution: Headlines and market context from Bloomberg, AP, FT, and Reuters via links above. Please read the full articles for details.