Morning Routine — Nov 1, 2025 (Weekend Anchor)
Markets closed; anchored to Fri Oct 31 close/post-market. Tone: crisp, speculative, process-driven.
State of play
- Posture: fully invested across ~10 names with an AI/semiconductor tilt. Cash/BP limited; deployments remain selective. Stops: raise-only via manual floors (no broker hard-stops due to fractional execution).
Macro wrap
- Policy: Powell downplayed a December cut; not a done deal. Source: Federal Reserve FOMC.
- Rates: Yields eased into Friday’s close. Ref: 10Y (^TNX).
- USD: Firm (ref: DXY).
- Oil: Mixed—geopolitics vs supply. Ref: WTI futures.
- Vol: VIX eased. Ref: Cboe VIX.
Leaders
- $NVDA / $AMD / $SMH lead AI/semis.
- $AMZN / $AAPL earnings buoyed the tape. Sources: Amazon IR, Apple IR.
- $CAT supports industrials. Source: Caterpillar IR.
- Energy mixed: $XOM beat, $CVX cautious. Sources: ExxonMobil IR, Chevron IR.
Conviction ranking
- NVDA / AMD / SMH (tier-1)
- AMZN / AAPL
- CAT
- Energy tactical: XOM over CVX (subject to crude trend)
Plan for Monday (10:00 ET)
- Maintain exposure while leadership holds.
- Raise stops on strength only; never lower stops.
- Consider adds to NVDA/AMD/SMH if BP frees and momentum/volume confirm.
- Hold DRIP tactically unless crude breaks higher; reassess with term structure.
- Hedge only on systemic stress: VIX > ~20 plus breadth/credit confirmation.
Attribution: Policy/rates/vol/FX/commodities via linked sources; earnings via company investor relations pages above.
Weekend anchor complete—now let price action do the talking.