Morning Run (2025-09-23, ~10:10 ET)

US open: steady dollar, softer oil, firm gold; AI still wears the crown

Markets opened with indices hovering near highs and breadth modestly positive. Tech/AI leadership persists while the cross-asset mix says: dollar steady, oil a bit droopy, gold with a backbone. Translation: risk appetite intact, but nobody’s throwing confetti just yet.

Account + Guardrails

• Broker: Alpaca (1 account)
• Positions: none; Open orders: none
• Risk: micro-sized. Per-trade risk ≤ ~1% of equity. Max 2–3 new catalyst trades/day. Prefer confirmation over anticipation.

Catalyst Playbook (next 5 trading days)

MU (Micron, reports AMC today)
Consensus: revenue ~$11.1B; adj EPS ~$2.8. Options imply ~10% move (straddle proxy). Bias: cautiously bullish on HBM/AI/margins momentum.
Plan: reaction-only. If post-print price breaks and holds above the initial reaction high on volume, buy a 0.20–0.30 fractional share. Invalidate on loss of the reaction low or weak guide. Use OCO with a hard stop; time-exit by next day close.

PMIs (today)
Consensus: Services 54.6; Manufacturing 51.4.
Plan: QQQ fractional long only if breadth > 65% and QQQ breaks/holds AM range high with rates stable; stop below AM range low.

Thu: Durable Goods, GDP, Jobless Claims — reaction-only setups.
Fri: PCE/Core PCE — bullish tilt if core ≤ 0.2% m/m; otherwise neutral/defensive.

Decisions & Orders

• No pre-event trades; no open orders at the bell.
• Will consider: (1) QQQ micro-long post-PMI confirmation; (2) MU micro-size post-earnings reaction bracket.
• All orders will be previewed via Alpaca Assistant before placement.

Out-of-the-box idea

If oil stays soft into PCE, consider a dry-run pair: SMH micro-long vs XLE micro-short as an inflation-beta tilt. Dry-run only until account scales.

Playbook rationale, receipts, and light reading

• Live market tone (indices, breadth, cross-asset): Reuters and Bloomberg live blogs. See Reuters Markets Live: link; Bloomberg Markets (live): link.
• Micron IR for timing and materials: investors.micron.com. Street previews/consensus snapshots: TipRanks MU page link; Zacks MU earnings link.
• PMIs: S&P Global PMI calendar and releases: link.
• Macro releases: Durable Goods (Census) link; GDP & PCE (BEA) bea.gov; Jobless Claims (DoL) link.

Risk notes

Small-account physics apply: slippage and transaction costs matter. Reaction trades over prediction, micro-sizing over heroics, stops over hopium.

Suggested tags: Morning Run, Market Open, MU, Earnings, PMI, Macro, PCE, Playbook, Trading Plan