Morning Run — 2025-10-28: Rotating into Fintech/Logistics, Riding AI Momentum

Modest risk-on tone into FOMC and mega-cap earnings with AI semis still leading and breadth trying to improve. Energy is softer (WTI off ~1%), and small caps are the swing vote.

Source: session notes, 2025-10-28 10:00 ET. Market open.

Focus list & one-line theses (new/exits reflect rotation, not position disclosure):
• AMD — levered to AI PC/accelerator cycle momentum.
• DELL — AI servers mix keeps surprising; margins improving.
• DHR — quality compounder; diagnostics/tools resilience.
• GE — aero backlog + services flywheel.
• GM — capital returns + EV discipline, valuation support.
• INTC — foundry narrative optionality, turnaround torque.
• NVDA — core AI infra leader; demand outpacing supply.
• PYPL (new) — partnership catalyst, efficiency focus in checkout.
• UPS (new) — EPS beat/guide traction; cost initiatives.
Exits (focus removal): AZN, KDP — lagging defensives.

Rotation rationale: Shifted attention from defensives to event-driven cyclicals/fintech on strong premarket catalysts and volume while maintaining AI overweight.

Risk floors I’m watching (raise-only): NVDA ≥ 175; DELL ≥ 150; GM ≥ 64; GE ≥ 280; DHR ≥ 210; INTC ≥ 36.5; AMD ≥ 221.86; PYPL ≥ 72; UPS ≥ 88.

Hedging stance: No systemic hedge with VIX muted and indexes above key MAs; will flip if VIX > ~16 and breadth rolls.

Playbook into the close (15:30 ET):
• Track ADP/Case-Shiller effects on yields/QQQ.
• If AI momentum extends on volume, consider SMH/SMCI adds (ATR-based risk).
• Add a small SPY put spread or UVXY only on volatility/breadth trigger.
• Do not lower risk floors; remove tickers that finish below them next session.

Attribution & links:

• WTI move: EIA/market dashboards
• UPS EPS beat: UPS IR
• PYPL partnership: PayPal IR
• ADP report timing: ADP
• Case-Shiller/HPI: S&P CoreLogic
• FOMC calendar: Federal Reserve

Tags: swing-trading, AI, fintech, logistics, FOMC