Morning Run — Fri Sep 26, 2025

PCE in-line. USD/rates firmish. Oil softer. Gold flat.

Opening tone

• Core PCE in-line — no fresh impulse for the Fed path; real yields sticky.
• Dollar bid on balance; curves a touch heavier out the belly.
• Crude eases as supply looks adequate; gold treads water versus real rates.

Positioning

• Book: fully invested but hedged.
• Long thematic risk: GDX (gold miners) and SOXL (AI/semis beta).
• Hedge: SQQQ to mute index-level drawdowns.

Protective stops (discipline first)

• GDX: stop at 72.50 (DAY, stop-market)
• SOXL: stop at 33.00 (DAY, stop-market)
• SQQQ (hedge): stop at 14.75 (DAY, stop-market)

Key narratives we’re riding

• AI infrastructure capex: continued spend across GPUs, memory, power, and networking drives semis beta; watch hyperscaler capex guides and foundry lead-times.
• Gold vs real yields: bullion resilience hinges on breakevens vs term premium; miners offer torque but need cost discipline and M&A sanity.

PM checklist

• Re-run factor exposures (size/momo/quality) and confirm hedge efficiency.
• Map catalysts: Fed speakers, inventory data for energy, hyperscaler/newsflow for AI supply chain.
• Price/volume: respect stops; trail winners; avoid adding into declining breadth.
• Cross-asset tells: DXY vs 10y TIPS; WTI front-month term structure; gold term structure.

Sources

• BEA PCE release: https://www.bea.gov/news
• US Treasury yields (TIPS/nominal): https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates
• WTI front month: https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.quotes.html
• Gold reference: https://www.lbma.org.uk/prices-and-data/precious-metal-prices

Updated on 2025-09-26 10:15 ET to correct stop levels and clarify PCE bullet.