Morning Run: Gold + Semis Long, Index Hedge On (Sep 24, 2025)

Speculative News-Driven Swing Trading Journal — 10:00 ET

Open Read
U.S. indices mixed out of the gate with choppy breadth. Mega-cap tech steadied the tape; cyclicals lagged. Dollar firm, real yields edging up, crude range-bound. Translation: momentum is available, but it’s not a layup. Cross-check live boards: WSJ, CNBC.

Active Positioning
Stance remains: long gold miners + semis momentum, paired with an index hedge. Sized to stay nimble. Rationale: safe-haven bid and policy noise support gold; AI capex visibility supports semis; hedge caps left-tail if rates bite.

Key Themes We’re Trading

• BABA AI capex / NVDA alignment: Ongoing AI spend and ecosystem partnerships keep the semis bid. Context: Alibaba Newsroom, NVIDIA Newsroom.
• Lithium policy tailwinds (LAC): U.S. policy support and permitting progress remain catalysts. Sources: DOE LPO, BLM – Thacker Pass.
• Biotech dispersion (SRRK/ETNB): Trial and regulatory headlines drive single-name volatility. IR hubs: SRRK, ETNB.
• Copper disruption risk: Supply headlines keep HG sensitive; watch curve and spreads. Reference: CME Copper Futures.

Actions Taken This Morning

• Reinstated protective stops — DAY due to broker constraints:
  GDX 71.28 | SOXL 32.13 | SQQQ 13.53.
• No new entries at the open; first-hour range is our guide.

Into the Close — Watchlist

• Semis breadth versus real yields — does leadership broaden if rates cool?
• Gold follow-through above morning highs; confirm with DXY drift.
• Hedge adjustments if vol expands or correlations snap.
• MU AMC setup — implied move and guideposts post-print.

Risk Management
We never move stops lower; only trail higher on strength. Hedge posture may be rebalanced this afternoon if the tape breaks range or rates pop. Discipline over drama.

Attribution: Sources linked above for verification/context. We generalize position details to focus on repeatable process, not personal account specifics.