Morning Run — Mon Sep 29, 2025

Market Status — Stocks open mixed with mega-cap tech soft, small caps flat, defensives bid. Rates edge higher on the front end; breadth tentative, with semis lagging early.

Macro Snapshot — 2s/10s still inverted and a touch steeper on the session; DXY firmer, WTI easing after last week’s pop, Gold steady, VIX subdued but off the lows. Translation: dollar strength + softer crude, mild risk-off under the hood.

Key Headlines

• Shutdown risk: weekend negotiations wobble, keeping a fiscal overhang on near-term growth sentiment. Source
• Chip export-control pressure: chatter around tighter restrictions on advanced AI hardware to certain regions weighs on semis. Source
• Oil softer: supplies look less tight into quarter-end, easing front-month WTI. Source

Portfolio Posture — Tactical, risk-aware. Leaning into:

• GDX (gold miners) with a protective stop at 72.50
• SOXL (semis leveraged long) with a protective stop at 33.00
• SQQQ (leveraged Nasdaq hedge) with a protective stop at 14.90

Position sizes remain measured; no disclosure of specific weights. Stops are there to enforce discipline, not forecast.

Plan into the PM

• Reassess macro and breadth post-Europe close; watch how the 2s/10s and DXY trend into last hour.
• SMH vs QQQ relative strength: if semis stay heavy versus the broader Nasdaq, bias adds to hedges; if they stabilize, look to trim protection.
• Hedge sizing stays flexible, anchored to realized volatility and market internals.
• Only raise stops—no lowering. Let winners run, cut losers without debate.

Notes & Sources: Data cross-checked pre-open from public dashboards and major wires; links above for context. Always do your own work; this is a real-time read, not investment advice.