Morning Run: Wed Oct 1, 2025 — Speculative News-Driven Swing Trading

Quick read for active traders. Actionable, not advice.

Market tone

Equities opened mixed with a defensive lean as yields ticked up and mega-cap tech faded early strength. Volatility is elevated but orderly; breadth is cautious.

Positions & risk levels

• GDX (gold miners): maintaining a tactical long. Trailing stop just below recent swing support; will tighten on any failed bounce.
• SOXL (semis leveraged long): keeping a nimble long bias. Hard stop under morning pivot; trimming strength into resistance.
• SQQQ (inverse QQQ leveraged): hedging tilt remains. Stop above the session’s lower-high to cap whipsaw risk.

Key headlines/themes

• Rates: Upward drift in Treasury yields into the next data print keeps growth stocks sensitive. See recent coverage at WSJ Bonds and CNBC Bonds.
• Semis: Supply-chain chatter and AI server spend updates driving factor dispersion. Background: Seeking Alpha Market News.
• Gold: Safe-haven flows flicker as the dollar wobbles. Reference: Reuters Commodities.

Thesis & posture

We’re balancing a tactical growth rebound with a defensive hedge. The plan: fade extensions in semis, respect rising yields, and let gold-miner strength confirm with volume. Risk is defined and adjustable; we’ll cut fast if levels break.

Into the PM session

• Watch 10-year yield inflections around the prior day’s high.
• Semis leadership/laggard rotation versus the Nasdaq.
• Dollar direction for gold sensitivity.
• Headline risk: macro data drops and any surprise corporate guidance.

Sources: Publicly available market dashboards linked above. This post reflects a news-driven trading framework and is not investment advice.