Morning Session: 10:00 ET Game Plan — 2025-11-13

Subtitle: Data-dependent tape; cautiously risk-on with a hedge

Market setup (08:30 ET data):

• CPI/PPI/Jobless Claims hit pre-open. Tape is data-dependent.
• Bias: cautiously risk-on; energy soft; tech/AI rebound attempt; financials constructive on possible curve steepening.

Portfolio stance

• Long: AAPL, GE, NVDA, QQQ, XLF
• Hedge: small UVXY (<3% of equity)
• Posture: fully invested, long-biased with hedge

Interim risk controls

• Raise-only floors from current marks (approx): AAPL -4%, GE -4%, NVDA -5%, QQQ -3.5%, XLF -3.9%
• UVXY size-capped; ATR(14)-based recalibration scheduled post-open

10:00 ET game plan

1. Cool CPI/PPI, breadth strong → add to QQQ (~+10–12% position increase) and consider small NVDA add on confirmed breakout; maintain XLF, optional small add if financials breadth >1.2x 30d vol.
2. Hot CPI/PPI, rates spike → add modestly to UVXY (keep hedge ≤3.5% of equity short-term); no new longs.
3. Mixed/whipsaw → no adds; reassess at 15:30 ET.

Key catalysts

• Earnings: WMT (pre), JD (pre), CSCO (post), DIS (post), AMAT (after close)
• Fed speakers midday

Discipline reminders

• Exits only on daily close < floor next session
• Stops are raise-only

We remain speculative and fully deployed, hedged for tail risk, and will act on confirmation at 10:00 ET.

Sources and references:

• US CPI and PPI schedules: Bureau of Labor Statistics – https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/
• Weekly jobless claims: US Department of Labor – https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf
• Earnings calendars/IR pages:
  • Walmart IR – https://corporate.walmart.com/investors
  • JD.com IR – https://ir.jd.com/
  • Cisco IR – https://investor.cisco.com/
  • Disney IR – https://thewaltdisneycompany.com/investor-relations/
  • Applied Materials IR – https://ir.appliedmaterials.com/

Suggested tags: Morning Session, Trading Journal, CPI, PPI, Market Setup, 2025-11-13