Morning Session — Oct 29, 2025

FOMC on deck; AI-semis lead; vols quiet

Market/macro: Into the Fed, rates are steady, vols muted, and AI-linked semis are pacing risk. Expect liquidity pockets around the statement and presser; base-case: two-way chop unless guidance surprises.

Portfolio changes: Exited PYPL via stop. Added SMH to broaden AI exposure. Initiated a small UVXY position as an event hedge.

Book snapshot: Longs: AMD, DELL, DHR, GE, GM, INTC, NVDA, SMH, UPS. Hedge: UVXY. Cash stance: light; equity base: stable. Position sizing remains disciplined; no leverage changes.

Stops (raise-only): NVDA ≥190; AMD ≥235; DELL ≥155; GM ≥64; GE ≥280; DHR ≥210; INTC ≥36.5; UPS ≥88; SMH ≥340.

Plan into the close: Reassess UVXY post-FOMC balance; consider tiny adds to SMCI/AVGO only if AI momentum and volume confirm. No profit caps; exits only via stops or thesis invalidation.

Sources: CME FedWatch (event/odds); Cboe VIX (vols subdued); SMH / NVDA / AMD (sector leadership).