Morning Session Playbook — Tue, Sep 23, 2025, 10:00 ET

Category: News Trading

Opening Tape

Powell on deck later today; rates steady with bonds bid pre-remarks. USD a touch softer, gold printing fresh records, and crude stabilizing after recent swings.

• Powell schedule: see Federal Reserve events calendar.
• Bonds bid / USD softer: reflected across premarket cross-asset moves.
• Gold: near record highs as real yields ease.
• Oil: holding steady after last week’s volatility.

Key Narratives We’re Trading

• AI capex flywheel: Continued reporting on escalating infrastructure spend tied to the Nvidia–OpenAI–hyperscaler stack keeps semi beta hot. We fade extremes but respect momentum.
• Gold surge: Safe‑haven + negative real‑rate impulse keeps miners bid; bullion making new highs.
• DOJ ad‑tech remedies: Ongoing remedy chatter keeps ad‑tech dispersion alive; we’re selective, avoiding event‑path headline risk.
• Autos softness (STLA as tell): Demand/pricing wobble in autos remains a drag; we treat bounces as supply.
• Energy mixed: Integrateds split—XOM talking upshift and capex/Permian tempo, while BP signals a tactical pause on certain capital returns/projects; keeps beta choppy.

Portfolio Moves (as of 10:00 ET)

We are fully invested, running asymmetric risk with stops only—no adds unless catalysts confirm.

• Long GDX — Thesis: gold momentum + miners’ operating leverage. Stop: below today’s premarket swing low.
• Long SOXL — Thesis: AI capex tape; riding semi beta with tight risk. Stop: under yesterday’s low.
• Hedge via SQQQ — Thesis: blunt convex hedge into Powell/headlines. Stop: if NDX reclaims morning VWAP and holds 30 min.

Into the Close (15:30 ET game plan)

• Reassess gold/miners breadth; tighten GDX stop if advance/decline fades.
• Semis: keep SOXL only if NVDA complex holds leaders above intraday higher lows; otherwise flatten to hedge‑only.
• Hedge: reduce SQQQ on clean upside reversal breadth + positive cumulative TICK; add if financial conditions tighten post‑Powell.

Sources & Links

• Fed events calendar: federalreserve.gov/newsevents/calendar.htm
• Reuters live markets and commodities (USD, gold, oil premarket color): reuters.com/markets and reuters.com/markets/commodities
• AI capex narrative (industry reporting and analysis): ft.com/ai
• DOJ ad‑tech case materials: justice.gov/atr