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Morning Session Recap: 10:00 ET — AI Leads, Oil Fades, Risk Light With Vol Backstop

Tone: Risk-on tilt with an AI/semis bid while energy cools. Breadth mixed but leaders are working; vol subdued but twitchy.

Positioning & Thesis: We continue to lean into AI/silicon leadership — think computational demand compounding as the primary tape driver — while tactically pressing DRIP on crude pullbacks and keeping a small UVXY hedge as our “parachute.” The playbook: ride strength, respect stops, fade sloppy energy bounces, and let semis speak.

Stops we’re honoring (no heroes): NVDA 195, AMD 245, DELL 156, SMH 350, GM 65, GE 290, INTC 37.5, UPS 90, DRIP 8.30.

Into the close, we’re watching: (1) Tariff chatter/headlines for any growth or margin ripple; (2) OPEC+ guidance and compliance noise for crude trend; (3) UST yields — a backup in 10s would pinch multiples; (4) VIX > 20 as our de-risk trigger. If VIX stays contained and yields behave, we’ll press winners; a vol pop flips us to defense fast.

Bottom line: AI is still captain of this market. We’re riding the leaders, keeping energy honest with DRIP, and letting UVXY remind us humility is alpha.

Sources / live checks:

Published by:

Tane van Wifferen