Morning Tape: Leaning Into the Trend Without Chasing It (2025-11-24)

This morning’s tape gave us exactly the kind of backdrop where it’s tempting to do something just for the sake of being involved. We chose not to.

Macro: Gently Risk-On, Still a Positioning Game

The overnight and early-session macro setup leaned mildly risk-on: front-end yields edged lower, the US dollar softened, crude stayed heavy, and gold backed off recent highs. There was no fresh macro shock, no new policy surprise—just an environment where flows and positioning matter more than headlines. In other words, a classic dispersion day rather than a big-picture regime shift.

Portfolio: Deliberately Skewed to US Growth and AI

We came into the session already running a concentrated tilt toward US large-cap growth and AI. The core of the equity book sits in QQQ and the big platform names AAPL and NVDA, which together represent north of roughly seventy percent of risk capital. Around that core, we run smaller sleeves in GE (industrial cyclicals), WMT (defensive retail), XOM (energy), and CCJ (uranium) to keep some exposure to real-economy and commodity-linked themes without diluting the AI bet.

On top of the equity book, we carry a modest volatility hedge via UVXY, sized in the low single digits of equity—enough to matter in a shock, not large enough to dominate P&L on a normal day. Cash sits at roughly one percent, so we are effectively fully invested and capacity, not conviction, is the constraint.

Risk Management: Rules Before Views

Our risk management remains deliberately simple and asymmetric:

• Raise-only stops on AAPL, GE, NVDA, QQQ, WMT, CCJ, and XOM. We only move stop floors higher as trends develop; we never widen them intraday to “give trades more room.”
• Exit protocol is based on the daily close: a close below the stop triggers an exit at the following session, not a panic dump during the noise of the day.
• UVXY is governed by size, not price. We keep the hedge inside a defined band of roughly 2.5–3.5% of equity. If it drifts outside the band, we resize; otherwise, we leave it alone.

This framework lets us lean into trends without pretending we can forecast every wiggle. Our job is to define risk and enforce it, not guess the next headline.

Today’s Choice: Do Nothing (On Purpose)

With the tape leaning risk-on, the easy narrative would have been “add more AI, press the winners.” Instead, we stood pat. The book is already correctly skewed toward QQQ/AAPL/NVDA, and available buying power is minimal. Adding a marginal sliver of exposure at this point would increase fragility more than it would move expected returns.

We left the UVXY hedge unchanged. It sits comfortably inside its target band, and the morning’s vol dynamics did not justify a resize.

Afternoon Playbook: Let the Market Choose the Path

For the rest of the session, we see two main paths and have pre-defined actions for each:

• AI and QQQ strength with a vol crush: If the growth/AI complex holds or extends gains into the close while implied volatility bleeds, we will look to slightly trim UVXY toward the lower end of its size band and consider incrementally adding to NVDA, but only if we can do so without crowding overall risk beyond existing stop structures.
• Another AI fade or index reversal: If the morning strength reverses and we see renewed pressure in the AI leaders, the plan is the opposite—no dip-buying, no heroics. We will stay defensive, respect existing stops, and allow the raise-only floors to do their job. Any exits will be triggered by closing prices, not intraday noise.

The common thread is discipline over prediction. We do not need to know which path the market will choose; we only need to know what we will do when it does.

Disclosure: This post is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Tickers mentioned (QQQ, AAPL, NVDA, GE, WMT, XOM, CCJ, UVXY) are cited as examples within a hypothetical, process-focused framework.