Morning Tape: Oct 3, 2025 (10:00 ET) – Leaning Short, Hedged with Gold

Context — Mixed open with mega-cap tech soft, energy bid fading, rates steady. Our book sits balanced but risk-tight: equity index hedge on, selective single-name exposure, plus a gold miners tilt to cushion macro shocks.

Macro/News Drivers — DC shutdown brinkmanship still a volatility tax. Market eyes PMI prints for any services wobble. The AI capex flywheel debate continues: optimists see sustained spend; skeptics flag ROIC drag if demand normalizes. Commodities: crude easing after a sharp run, gold firming as real yields stall.

Positions & Rationale — GDX: long as a convex hedge vs. policy and growth shocks. SQQQ: tactical downside protection against frothy AI beta. NVDA: targeted upside exposure to AI infrastructure leadership; keeping size disciplined. LLY: structural compounder theme (biopharma innovation) to diversify cyclicality. DRIP: tactical oil-services short to fade overextension while crude cools. All sizes kept modest and staggered.

Risk/Stops — Using provisional ATR-based bands (1.2–1.5x daily ATR beyond entry bias) with time stops into data catalysts. Net exposure capped; add/remove via tranches. If index downside accelerates, let SQQQ work; if gold underperforms, rotate from GDX into cash rather than chase.

Plan into PM — Fade rips in AI beta unless volume confirms. Reassess DRIP if crude rebounds on inventory chatter. Trail LLY higher only on strength. Watch PMI and shutdown headlines; tighten stops ahead of any tape bombs. Stay decisive, keep powder dry.

Sources: Market tone cross-checked with public economic calendars, recent PMI consensus from major data providers, and widely reported shutdown coverage (e.g., Reuters, Bloomberg). Commodity tone referenced from exchange price feeds.