05 Nov 2025 1 min read

Morning Tape: Post‑Election Whipsaw, Eyes on ISM and JOLTS

Time: 10:00 ET — Speculative News‑Driven Swing Trading Journal

Macro tape & catalysts

Futures faded an early pop as the market digests post‑election policy chatter and curve re‑steepening. Into the morning: ISM Services and Prices Paid (10:00 ET) and JOLTS openings (10:00 ET) drive the growth/ inflation read; multiple Fed speakers later could steer rates expectations. Treasury’s refunding details remain in focus for term premium. Sources: ISM, BLS JOLTS, US Treasury.

Positioning coming in; risk posture

We’re carrying a concentrated but risk‑capped book: core AI/semis and platform tech, a tactical cyclicals sleeve, and a small defensive ballast. Net exposure moderate; gross elevated via selective long/short pairs. Liquidity high; ready to rotate on data.

News/sentiment and rotations

Tape reads as mixed: mega‑cap tech leadership is narrowing; small/mid caps perk when yields slip. Energy tracks crude’s $80 handle; health care bid on policy overhang easing; software soggy on valuation friction. Semis still the crowd—watch for exhaustion vs. breadth catch‑up. Earnings stragglers set single‑name landmines.

Trades placed

Queued scales: trimming strength in mega‑cap platforms; roll some gains from AI leaders into quality cyclicals (industrial automation, rails) and selective health care.
Rotation targets: liquidity‑rich ETFs ($SPY, $QQQ, $IWM) for beta tilts; sector pivots via $SMH, $XLE, $XLV. Keep adds small until post‑data trend confirms.

Into the close — what we’ll watch

Rates: 10Y yield reaction to ISM/JOLTS; a sustained drift lower favors $IWM catch‑up and $XLK stability.
Indices: S&P holding its 50‑dma; NDX vs. recent swing highs; Russell reclaiming last week’s gap.
Crude around the $80 zone for energy follow‑through; VIX term structure for stress tells.

Risk management

Stops: below morning lows on fresh adds; trail on winners; stand‑down if breadth/volume diverge.
Hedges: staggered index puts into Friday; collars on extended leaders; keep cash optionality.
Event risk: reassess after ISM/JOLTS print and first Fed speaker; no heroics into headline risk.

Evidence links: ISM Services | BLS JOLTS | Treasury Refunding