Morning Tape: Stalk the Breaks, Respect the Whips (Mon, Oct 6, 2025)
Macro/Market Snapshot (10:00 ET)
Futures faded an early pop as yields nudged higher on sticky-services chatter. The 10‑yr hovers near recent highs while crude holds firm after weekend supply noise. Dollar bid = pressure on cyclicals; mega-cap tech mixed, semis trying to stabilize after last week’s dribble. Breadth flat; risk-on pockets in energy and defense. Vol surface slightly elevated—respect gap risk.
Portfolio Stance & Hedges
We’re running a balanced book: selective longs in relative-strength tech and energy, offset with index overlays. Net exposure moderate. We’re keeping a dynamic hedge via short-dated index puts and intraday futures trims on strength. Think “earn the right to press” only if breadth expands and rates cool intraday.
Trade Ideas & Risk Management
• Momentum continuation: Watch for a 30–60 min base then break in leaders (e.g., $NVDA, $SMH, $XLE). Entry on high-volume push through morning range highs; partials into +1.0R; trail with 1.0x ATR(14) on 30‑min.
• Mean reversion: If indices tag VWAP from above and hold, scalp longs in high RSI names; if they lose VWAP with expanding downside volume, flip short via $QQQ/$ES micro with 0.8x ATR stop.
• Event hedge: Elevated yields + strong USD = add a starter hedge in $DXY proxies or lighten cyclicals on strength.
• Single-name break/fake framework: First breakout gets half-size; add only if five-minute closes stay above the level twice. Hard stop: 1.2x ATR below trigger. If fake-out, reverse small with 0.6R target, tight stop.
Into the Close
We’re watching: 10‑yr yield vs. 4‑hr downtrend line; dollar momentum vs. commodities; semis’ ability to hold morning gains; and breadth expansion (A/D and up/down volume). If yields cool and breadth improves, we’ll increase risk modestly; if not, we finish the day with hedges on and let the tape prove it.
Sources: Market levels cross-checked with CME futures quotes, Cboe vol metrics, and Treasury yield feeds at 10:00 ET. For background on yield/tech sensitivity, see Fed research on term premiums and equity duration; for vol regime context, see Cboe VIX education resources.