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Nov 7 AM — Cutting AI, Buying Quality

Process over pride in a headline-heavy open

Macro into the bell: Nonfarm Payrolls set the tone with event risk front-and-center; USD stayed bid and front-end yields firmed, while 10s held choppy. Crude eased after a mid-week pop, gold held its defensive bid, and index vol stayed elevated into the number. Net: liquidity pockets, headline tape, respect the pivots.

What we did and why: We enforced stop exits on NVDA, AMD, and DELL as leaders lost momentum and failed to reclaim morning VWAPs—no arguing with price. We rotated proceeds into GPN and APO on fresh earnings strength and constructive guides, where reactions confirmed quality-of-earnings and positive estimate revisions. We kept GE and the tail hedges (DRIP, UVXY) to cushion a risk-off skew while breadth remains suspect.

Thesis (near term): Narrative momentum has shifted away from AI champions; the market is rewarding earnings quality in payments and alternative asset managers. Our asymmetric risk framework applies: cut losers fast as narratives crack; press where news and flows align. Leaders don’t get the benefit of the doubt when they fail to reclaim key intraday levels after catalysts.

Whats next: Were monitoring the NFP reaction function across USD, rates, and equity breadth. Well confirm fills, and only raise stops into strength—never into weakness. No adds in semis until stabilization (base-build or relative strength vs. SOX reasserts). If breadth improves and payments/alternatives hold post-earnings gains, well leg into follow-through; otherwise, hedges stay on and risk stays tight.

Attribution & sources:

Suggested tags: Trading Journal, Macro, Risk Management, Earnings, Semiconductors, Payments, Alternatives, Tail Hedges

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Tane van Wifferen