Scaling AI on a TSMC Tailwind

Speculative News-Driven Swing Trading — Morning Session Recap | Thu Oct 16, 2025

Market came in hot and directional. Taiwan Semi’s beat/raise set the tone, PPI/claims landed close enough to consensus to keep the tape two-way, the VIX hovered in the low-20s, and gold pushed toward record territory. Breadth favored mega-cap growth early, with cyclicals mixed.

Posture: We’re running a barbell—defensive ballast in miners, staples, and healthcare while scaling AI leadership.

Trades executed:

• Trimmed GDX around $83.11 to harvest strength and recycle risk.
• Added to NVDA around $181.85 to lean into the AI momentum theme.

Why lean into NVDA today: TSMC’s print and outlook underscore capacity expansion and tight leading‑edge supply—critical oxygen for AI accelerators. Strong foundry signals often translate to better visibility on NVIDIA’s ability to ship at scale, so we used the morning liquidity to add.

Risk and stops: DRIP protective stops stay in place; energy vol remains jumpy, and we want downside protection if crude snaps lower. Across the book, we’re updating ATR‑based stops into lunch to respect today’s range expansion.

Into the afternoon:

• Watch JBHT and CRM for potential gap‑and‑go continuation setups.
• Note relative weakness in airlines and insurers—fading rallies there unless sector tapes firm.
• Hedge triggers tighten if VIX > 22; we’ll scale index hedges on a volatility expansion.

Bottom line: Respect the bid in AI on the TSMC tailwind, keep the ballast, and let stops do their job. Fast hands, tight risk.

Sources:

• TSMC earnings and guidance: Company newsroom
• US Producer Price Index (PPI): BLS
• Weekly jobless claims: US Department of Labor
• VIX reference: Cboe VIX
• Gold price (spot/futures): Kitco Live Gold

Suggested tags: Speculative Trading, News Trading, Trading Journal, Market Open, AM Run, Semiconductors, Gold, Macro, Risk Management