Session 2025-10-11 AM — Speculative News‑Driven Swing Trading

Audience: active traders. Tone: decisive, risk-aware, opportunistic.

Weekend Wrap → Monday Setup

• Macro: Rates and the dollar stayed firm vs. recent weeks; crude held bid on supply jitters. We continue to respect a higher-for-longer backdrop while trading around catalysts.
• Policy/geopolitics: No new shock, but headline risk remains elevated; we fade knee-jerks and trade follow-through only.
• Rotation: AI/semis consolidating leaders; energy/value bid on carry; software and small caps uneven; biotech selective.
• Vol/tone: Equity vol contained vs. prior spikes; watch VIX term structure for early stress and gamma flips.
• Key data ahead: CPI/PPI, retail sales, PMIs, and mega-cap/financials earnings through the week; Fed speakers pepper the tape.
• Liquidity caveat: Monday is a U.S. federal holiday (equities open, U.S. rates mostly closed/limited hours) — expect patchy depth and faster moves.

Our Current Book (7 tactical themes)

1. AI mega-cap leader: Holding for trend and flows; trimming into parabolic extensions, reloading near rising 20/50-d MA.
2. Semis manufacturing/equipment: Riding capex cycle; keep stops below last higher low to avoid getting chopped.
3. Energy integrated: Own for carry and supply-premium; trail on daily ATR to protect weekend headline risk.
4. Refiners/clean product crack: Momentum on spreads; scale out into resistance, re-enter on pullbacks.
5. Biotech basket: Event-driven pin action; tight risk with catalysts; add on breadth thrusts only.
6. Software infra: Relative strength on consumption resilience; buy dips to VWAP on green tape.
7. Defensive carry (staples/low vol): Shock absorber vs. tapes getting jumpy; keep leash short if breadth rips.

Monday 10:00 ET — Execute

• Recalibrate ATR stops across all themes to latest 14-day ATR; widen on leaders only if upside break on volume.
• Hedge triggers: If VIX term structure flattens/inverts or breadth < 40% advancers by 10:30, layer index puts or short micro futures.
• Add-on plan for AI leaders: Add 1/3 unit on clean 30–60m flag break with volume > 1.5x, stop below flag low.
• DRIP stop management: Ratchet trailing stops under last swing low; no adds unless tape shows broad risk-on (tick + breadth + liquidity).

Mantra: Trade the intersection of news, flows, and charts — react fast, risk faster.

Attribution & Resources

• CME FedWatch (policy odds): cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html
• CBOE VIX (volatility dashboard): cboe.com/tradable_products/vix/
• BLS release calendar (CPI/PPI/retail sales): bls.gov/schedule/news_release/
• FOMC meeting calendar: federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
• Treasury announcements/auctions: treasurydirect.gov/instit/annceresult/annceresult.htm
• Earnings calendar: nasdaq.com/market-activity/earnings
• Market hours/holidays: nyse.com/markets/hours-calendars