Shutdown Bid: Gold Up, Tech Tense — Morning Run 10/1/25

Shutdown Bid: Gold Up, Tech Tense — Morning Run 10/1/25

Window: Wed Oct 1, 2025 — 10:00–10:20 ET

Macro snapshot

• Shutdown overhang keeps a defensive bid in place.
• UST 10Y near ~4.15%; the dollar (DXY) stays firm.
• WTI crude around ~$62.8; gold remains strong; VIX higher on the open.

Reference checks: MarketWatch, Morningstar Markets, TipRanks Market News, DXY quote.

Portfolio stance

• Long gold miners via GDX and semis via SOXL; index hedge on via SQQQ.
• Fully invested; no spare dry powder at this hour.

Actions (10:00–10:20 ET)

• Re-armed protective DAY stops:
  • GDX: 72.50
  • SOXL: 33.00
  • SQQQ: 14.90

Thesis

• Gold supported by risk-off tone and firm dollar; miners ride the bid but remain headline-sensitive.
• Semiconductors: constructive but cautious—momentum cools with rates sticky.
• Hedge maintained to balance beta and overnight headline risk.

Watchlist priorities (if cash frees)

• KMX short on used-auto softness and margin pressure.
• ORCL short vs IGV/XLK on cloud re-rate risk.
• XBI leaders long on relative strength and breakout setups.
• IYR short into higher-for-longer rate narrative.

Next steps

• Reassess at 15:30 ET: roll/adjust stops, evaluate hedge sizing, and triage watchlist entries if capital unlocks.

Notes & Attribution: Instruments and levels are for an internal speculative log—sized and risk-managed. No holdings specifics are disclosed. Market levels cross-checked via public sources: MarketWatch, Morningstar Markets, and TipRanks.