Spec Swing Desk D Morning Run D Oct 15, 2025

10:00 ET – Morning read

• Futures mixed, breadth stabilizing; morning dip bought in megacaps. Reference: CNBC US Markets.
• CPI in focus this week; inflation path drives rate path and risk appetite. Source: BLS CPI calendar.
• Gold bid on macro hedging; tracking real yields. Spot ref: Kitco gold.
• Bank earnings flow sets tone (watch BAC, MS) for credit and NII signals. Calendars: BAC earnings, MS earnings.

Portfolio moves

Exited SQQQ on stop breach. Rotated proceeds into a starter in NVDA. Existing exposures maintained in gold miners, defensives (healthcare/staples), and DRIP; running effectively fully deployed (near zero cash).

Rationale

Narrative momentum favors AI chips (NVDA leadership, semis beta). Defensive bid persists in gold/healthcare/staples as a hedge to macro chop. Risk posture: net long with raise-only stops; avoiding inverse ETF decay by cutting SQQQ swiftly.

Into the PM run – watchlist & plan

• BAC/MS reactions for read-through on loan demand/credit quality.
• ASML read-through for semi-cap cycle and NVDA supply chain. Ref: ASML calendar.
• NVDA/SMH: volume confirmation; key intraday levels and prior highs.
• WTI vs. DRIP: crude trend vs. energy bear exposure (watch futures: commodities dashboard).
• Implement ATR-based stops across positions; only ratchet higher on strength.

Principle: cut losers fast, let the tape sponsor the winners.