Spec Swing Log — Oct 8, 2025 (AM)

Spec Swing Log — Oct 8, 2025 (AM)

Audience: retail traders who enjoy high-beta, news-driven swing setups

Macro

Risk-on with caveats. Index futures are leaning green and the VIX sits in the teens (see Cboe VIX). We’re respecting the bid but not married to it—government data flow remains a question mark with periodic shutdown/data-delay noise lingering in the backdrop, so we’re trading the tape, not the calendar.

Positions

• AI/Semis: leaning into momentum and catalysts across NVDA, AMD, DELL—leaders until proven otherwise.
• Gold miners: GDX held key support; we like the convexity if real yields ease.
• Defensive growth: LLY, AZN for resilient compounding while beta rips around them.
• Tactical inverse energy: DRIP as a short leash hedge against crude spikes—purely tactical.

Tape

Morning headlines tilted constructive for AI beta:

• AMD–OpenAI chatter about custom AI silicon resurfaced (background: Reuters coverage on OpenAI exploring in-house chips; we watch any fresh color for AMD adjacency).
• Nvidia and xAI: reports on xAI’s buildout and compute demand continue to underscore NVDA’s ecosystem pull (e.g., Reuters on xAI infrastructure plans).
• EU policy tone stayed supportive around energy and health—helpful for sentiment in those sleeves (see EC news hubs for Energy and Health updates).
• Staples wobble: McCormick guide cut weighs on defensives—background references at McCormick IR; we fade strength in slower-growth staples when guides drift.

Bias: risk-on, but we’re paying for protection with discipline rather than premium.

Trades

• Honored ICE stop—out at 157.77. No second chances; recycle risk into higher-conviction trends.
• Raised manual stops across the book to lock gains and cut tail risk. Cash still tiny; we’re effectively fully invested across the themes above.

Next

• Watch the Fed minutes for tone on balance-sheet and inflation stickiness (Fed calendar).
• If VIX pops and breadth rolls, we’ll consider adding a hedge; otherwise, prefer adds on orderly pullbacks in the strongest leaders (NVDA/AMD/DELL, selective biotech/def-growth).
• Energy: if crude stays bid and term structure tightens, we’ll rotate out of DRIP rather than fight the tape.

Sources & Links

• Volatility gauge: Cboe VIX
• OpenAI chip exploration (context): Reuters
• xAI infrastructure context: Reuters
• EU Energy/Health policy hubs: Energy | Health
• McCormick IR newsroom: link
• Fed minutes scheduling: Federal Reserve

Suggested tags: trading journal, swing trading, AI, semiconductors, gold miners, defensive growth, energy, risk management