Spec Swing Prep: Weekend Playbook for 10/18/2025 (AM)

Subtitle: Tight playbook, defined triggers, zero drift. Monday is for execution, not debate.

Market Backdrop

• Rates: Long-end yields remain elevated with curve re‑steepening risk as term premium stays sticky. Policy path uncertainty keeps duration volatile around data and supply. See U.S. Treasury daily yield data and CME FedWatch for expectations.
• USD: The dollar bid persists on relative growth and carry, a headwind for cyclicals and EM beta. Track via ICE U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) and broad trade-weighted measures (e.g., FRED broad dollar index).
• Oil (surplus narrative): Physical balances lean looser into year-end on non-OPEC supply and softening demand growth. See IEA Oil Market Report versus OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, plus U.S. inventories from EIA Weekly Petroleum Status.
• Gold resilience: Despite high real yields, gold continues to act as crisis convexity and dollar-hedge. Cross-check World Gold Council research (Goldhub) and real yield proxies (e.g., FRED 10y TIPS yield).
• Regional-bank jitters: Funding costs and CRE/credit worries keep pressure on smaller lenders; watch breadth and beta in regional banks. Reference: KRE fund page, FDIC Quarterly Banking Profile.

Current Portfolio Posture

• Barbell: Defensive ballast via miners and other low-correlation exposures, paired with selective AI growth.
• Financials hedge: FAZ held as downside convexity against regional-bank stress.
• Energy tactical: Short-oil expression managed via DRIP; hard stop rests at 9.25 to cap downside.

Monday 10:00 ET Game Plan

• ATR stop formalization: Convert discretionary stops to 1.0–1.5x daily ATR trailing on core risk units across book; raise-only policy once set.
• AI adds (NVDA/DELL): Add only on: a) market breadth expansion (advancers>decliners and semis outperforming SOX vs SPX), and b) clean breakout with volume confirmation or pullback to rising 20/50-day that holds on first test. No add if dollar spikes or real yields lurch higher.
• Energy (DRIP add): Add to DRIP only if WTI fails retests and term structure softens (contango widens/less backwardation) alongside inventory builds. No add if OPEC jawboning tightens spreads or risk-on squeezes crude.
• Miners dip-buys: Only on USD (DXY) pause or pullback and real yields stable-to-lower; avoid catching falling knives if dollar rallies or TIPS yields press higher.
• FAZ retention: Keep the hedge unless KRE shows sustained strength (higher highs with improving up/down volume) and credit spreads narrow. Hedge reduction is earned, not assumed.

Risk Rules

• Fully invested framework: The book is put to work; rotation replaces raising cash.
• Raise-only stops: Stops trail up; they do not widen. Respect the first stop.
• Cut losers fast: Losers are inventory errors—exit quickly and revisit later.
• No intraday churn: Two strikes per idea per day; no revenge trading, no scalping detours.

What I’ll Change Fast If I’m Wrong

• Rates/ USD squeeze: If long-end lurches higher and DXY rips, I’ll cut cyclicals/EM beta, tighten AI adds, and lighten miners until the dollar cools.
• Oil squeeze: If WTI squeezes on surprise OPEC action or geopolitics, I’ll respect the DRIP 9.25 stop and stand down on adds until structure normalizes.
• Regional-bank relief: If KRE breadth flips decisively positive with credit spreads tightening, I’ll start peeling FAZ and rotate into higher-quality cyclicals.
• Gold breaks correlation: If gold loses resilience alongside steady real yields, I’ll reduce miner exposure and move to index hedges.

Sources and Further Reading

• U.S. Treasury yields: Treasury Daily Rates; Policy probabilities: CME FedWatch.
• Dollar trend: ICE DXY; FRED Broad Dollar Index.
• Oil balances: IEA OMR; OPEC MOMR; Inventories: EIA Weekly.
• Gold vs real yields: World Gold Council Goldhub; Real yields: FRED 10y TIPS.
• Regional banks: SPDR KRE; FDIC QBP.

Note: This recap avoids position sizes, account details, and tick-by-tick noise. It’s a process-first plan anchored on themes, triggers, and discipline.