Speculative Swing Journal — Oct 12 (AM)

Macro Backdrop: The tape is digesting the Fed’s first rate cut of the cycle and recalibrating the path ahead. The immediate read-through: easier policy meets still-sticky inflation risk and a firm labor backdrop, so curves can stay choppy. Meanwhile, US–China tech tensions linger (export controls and licensing scrutiny remain a headline risk for advanced chips and tooling), a key overhang for AI supply chains.

Sector Rotation: AI semis opened cautious—leadership is intact, but breadth narrowed and momentum signals cooled. Energy lagged as crude softened, while gold and healthcare printed steadier relative strength as defensives and real-assets found dip interest.

Portfolio Stance: Currently holding a focused basket: AMD, NVDA, LLY, AZN, DELL, GDX, DRIP. DRIP carries an active stop given its volatility profile. Sizing stays pragmatic; I’m leaning into relative strength and catalysts, not heroics.

Risk Posture: Hedge‑ready. If NQ gaps below Friday’s low on the futures reopen, I’ll reach for SQQQ as a fast, defined‑risk overlay. Otherwise, I’ll keep powder dry and let levels confirm.

Game Plan into Futures Reopen:

• Watch: ES/NQ (gap/volume-at-price), DXY (risk impulse), USTs (2s/10s tone), WTI/Brent (trend integrity), gold/silver (follow‑through vs. rates).
• Triggers: GDX > 31 = add to minerals/miners momentum; DRIP maintained/add only on a convincing crude breakdown (daily close below support with breadth confirming).
• AI semis: respect the primary uptrend but demand confirmation—no chasing if leadership dispersion widens; prefer add‑backs on pullbacks into support with volume.

Notes: I’m keeping swings tactical—trade the reaction, not the prediction. Policy easing is supportive, but headline risk (policy/rules and geopolitics) can trump factor signals intraday. Levels first, narrative second.

Sources and references:

• Federal Reserve FOMC statement and press materials: federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy
• U.S. export controls and China tech policy context: BIS/Commerce resources: bis.doc.gov
• Sector/commodity dashboards for cross‑checks: S&P sector data and CME/ICE contract pages.

Next check-in: 15:30 ET