Speculative Swing Log – Sunday, Oct 26, 2025 (10:00 ET)

Markets closed today; prepping for Monday with FOMC on Wednesday. Plan is decisive, stops tight, and bias flexible.

Macro / Cross-Asset Setup

• Yields: US curves steady near recent highs; duration remains a headwind into FOMC. Evidence: U.S. Treasury.
• USD: Dollar bid on carry and growth spreads; keep an eye on DXY into Powell. Evidence: MarketWatch DXY.
• Crude: Sanctions headlines keeping volatility elevated; fade vertical spikes. Evidence: Reuters Commodities.
• Gold: Defensive bid persists as real yields wobble. Evidence: Kitco.
• Crypto: Risk-on tone but headline‑sensitive; treat as beta. Evidence: CoinDesk Markets.

Portfolio Snapshot

• 9 longs; top exposures: AI/growth, GM cyclical; fully invested; manual stops due to fractional routing.
• Raised floors: NVDA 172; DELL 148; GM 64; GE 280; DHR 210; INTC 35.5; XLP 77.5. Unchanged: AZN 80; KO 66.

Trade Plan into Monday

• Prioritize AI/growth momentum: SMH/AMD/QQQ on strength; scale, don’t chase.
• Avoid chasing energy spikes; prefer mean‑reversion entries.
• Watch AAPL legal overhang for headline risk.
• Hedge if tape turns: QQQ puts or UVXY starters.

Risk Rules

• Always invested; raise stops, never lower.
• Exit on floor breaks—no debate.
• Respect FOMC headline/vol risk this week.

Sources linked above; no proprietary data disclosed.