23 Oct 2025 1 min read

Speculative Swing Trading Journal — Morning Session (Thu, Oct 23, 2025)

Opening Read: Tape opened skittish: growth heavy, defensives bid. Front-end yields firm, dollar steady with a slight safe-haven tone, and crude bid on geopolitics. Bottom line: risk-on is selective, not broad.

What We Did (and Why): Initiated a small SQQQ hedge to respect tech beta and headline risk. Retained core positions in NVDA, GM, GE, DHR, KO, DELL, AZN, XLP—quality/liquidity bias intact. Objective: buffer potential Nasdaq downside while letting core theses work.

Narrative & Rotations to Watch (into the afternoon):

Semis softness: chip complex lagging; NVDA-led read on whether SOX stabilizes or drifts lower.
Staples strength: XLP holding gains as yields stabilize—defense working while cyclicals hesitate.
Energy bid: crude supported amid fresh/expanded sanctions chatter and supply frictions; watching for follow-through vs. fade.
Defense steady: aerospace/defense firm on persistent geopolitical tension; leadership rotates here if rates cool.

Risk Posture & Stops: Raise-only stops. Let winners run; exits via stop or thesis break. Hedge sizing stays modest unless breadth/semis deterioration accelerates.

Hedge Playbook (next 2–5 days):

Remove SQQQ hedge if semis set higher lows, breadth improves (advancers > decliners), and crude cools alongside a softer dollar/rates—calmer cross-currents.
Press hedge if SOX makes fresh lows, mega-cap growth fails at resistance, or energy/rates re-accelerate into the close—tighter conditions and shrinking risk budgets.

Takeaway: Stay opportunistic yet paranoid—trade the tape you have, not the one you want.