Speculative Swing Trading Journal — Morning Session, Tue Sep 30, 2025

Market + Macro: Futures chopped as yields firm and the dollar stays bid; breadth mixed with megacaps steady and cyclicals hesitant. Macro tone: mildly risk-off pending this week’s jobs data and Fed speaker cadence (see CME FedWatch, 10Y yields).

• Portfolio (sized modestly): selective tech momentum, an energy swing tied to crude trend, a defensive hedge via index downside; rationale: relative strength + event risk buffer. No sensitive specifics disclosed.
• Actions: Stop orders re-armed across positions; no new entries.
• Watchlist: $NVDA/$SMH on pullbacks to rising 20DMA with volume dry-up; $XLE continuation above recent pivot if crude holds; $IWM reclaim of prior breakdown = risk-on tell; $GLD if real yields ease.
• Deployment triggers: breadth thrust (>2:1 adv/decl), VIX compression below recent range, or clean retest-and-go at listed levels.
• Risk: Tight risk, smaller adds only on confirmation. Next checkpoint: 15:30 ET.

Sources: Yahoo Finance market overview; TradingView for technical levels; CME FedWatch for policy odds.