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Speculative Swing Trading: Morning Session Game Plan (10:00 ET)

Decisive, news-driven, and risk-forward. For sophisticated retail traders.

Macro + Headlines (as of 10:00 ET)

  • Rates: UST 10Y yield firm with curve little changed; market pricing steady odds for the next Fed move per CME FedWatch.
  • Growth/Inflation: Traders digest the latest GDP/PCE prints and revisions on the calendar via BEA schedule and labor trends via BLS release calendar.
  • Earnings: Semis and mega-cap tech remain in focus after mixed beats/misses across the week; see running coverage at Reuters Markets.
  • Commodities/FX: Crude is choppy around key moving averages; USD holding a bid vs majors; reference live dashboards at Reuters Commodities and WSJ FX.

Portfolio Adjustments

  • Exited DHR: Took the trade off after momentum stalled at resistance; framework was a break-fade, exit on loss of relative strength vs sector.
  • Initiated DRIP: Tactical bearish energy expression; entry on intraday failure at supply, stop above the morning swing high and beyond a nearby crude resistance shelf.
  • Added to SMH: Leaned into relative strength in semis; add triggered on reclaim of short-term moving average cluster, stop below yesterday’s low and the 21dma buffer.

Thesis (one line each)

  • DHR: Risk/reward deteriorated as defensive rotation cooled—capital better redeployed.
  • DRIP: If crude and energy equities fail at resistance into a stronger USD, the downside convexity improves.
  • SMH: Leadership persists with breadth improving; pullbacks are being bought above trend support.

Current Positioning Snapshot

  • SMH: Long—riding relative strength; watch AI/server capex commentary and order books.
  • DRIP: Short energy tilt—expressing downside in oil/equities while capping risk with a tight stop.

Risk Management

  • Stops:
    • Trend longs (e.g., SMH): floor = yesterday’s low or 21dma, whichever is lower.
    • Tactical shorts/hedges (e.g., DRIP): floor = prior swing high + small buffer.
  • Hedge policy: Vol hedge allowed via UVXY with a predefined cap on total book exposure; use as a spike absorber, not a core position.

Into the Close

  • Watch 10Y yield and USD into the afternoon—risk assets prefer a drift lower in both.
  • Semis leadership vs SPX/NDX; any reversal there is a tell.
  • Energy’s reaction to inventory headlines and front-month curve shape.

Sources: CME FedWatch, BEA, BLS, Reuters, WSJ Market Data.

Suggested tags: Speculative Swing Trading, macro, risk-management, SMH, DRIP, DHR, morning-note

Published by:

Tane van Wifferen