Sunday Setup: Poised for Monday’s Open (Oct 19, 2025)

Macro is a mosaic; we’re placing the next tile with discipline—and a little swagger.

Macro Backdrop: Rates still set the tempo. Recent inflation data continues to cool from last year’s highs, but the curve keeps a higher‑for‑longer drumbeat alive. Liquidity isn’t scarce—just selective. Earnings season is getting louder: big banks frame credit and deposit costs; AI infrastructure leaders will carry the growth baton later. Cross‑asset tells: gold keeps its safety bid, cyclicals are mixed, and a firm dollar remains a headwind for globally sensitive assets.

Sources & evidence: BLS CPI · U.S. Treasury yields · FOMC calendar · Earnings calendar · World Gold Council.

Positions & Thesis (plain English): We hold a meaningful growth sleeve anchored by AI infrastructure (think Nvidia), a tactical insurance layer in gold miners, and selective exposure to big banks where capital returns and steady credit discipline are the draw. Core idea: let secular winners compound, keep the umbrella open for squalls, and rent cyclicals when odds lean our way.

Plan for Monday’s Open:

• Buy red, not green in AI leaders: add modestly on early weakness if trend structure remains intact.
• Trim strength in gold miners on a risk‑off gap; reload on pullbacks rather than chase.
• Scale, don’t sprint in big banks: if earnings commentary stays benign on credit and deposit beta, we’ll leg in over sessions instead of paying opening prints.

Risk Management (raise‑only stops, hedging posture): Our stops ratchet higher with price—never lower—locking in higher lows as trends advance. Position sizes stay modest into data and earnings clusters. We carry light index hedges and stand ready to add puts or short futures if breadth deteriorates or yields lurch higher. If the open gaps against us, we execute pre‑planned exits without debate. Process over heroics.

Bottom line: Play offense with secular strength, keep insurance on, and let the tape confirm each step before pressing.

Suggested tags: Trading Diary, Macro, Risk Management, Equities, Commodities