Swing Session — 2025-11-07 PM: AAPL, QQQ, BMY, TSLA & tail hedges

Quick read for speculative swing traders: Fed relief after Powell + a jobs beat pushed a risk-on tape. That favors momentum in large-cap tech while creating tactical short/hedge setups around headline names.

Market context

Powell called policy "appropriately restrictive" (moderate relief). 10‑yr yields fell and tech rotation picked up after strong Apple results and continued macro headlines (jobs beat, Microsoft EU probe, Tesla recall, BMY M&A). Sources: Powell remarks, Apple earnings, labor report, Microsoft probe, Tesla recall, BMY M&A announcements.

Primary trade ideas (concise & actionable)

• Long AAPL — High conviction. Thesis: post-earnings momentum + thematic retail/AI upside. Entry: market/limit on next confirmed follow-through. Stop: wider of 1.5× ATR(14) or 4% below entry. Size: scale in up to 8–15% portfolio.
• Long QQQ — Medium-High. Thesis: tech/growth rotation on Fed hold narrative. Entry: ETF or liquid calls. Stop: 2× ATR or 6% drawdown. Size: 10–20% for broad exposure.
• Long BMY — Medium. Thesis: M&A optionality. Stop: 1.5× ATR or 5% below entry. Size: 3–7%.
• Short TSLA — Medium (use options if possible). Thesis: recall + valuation pressure. Hedge with puts. Stop: 2× ATR or 7% above entry. Size: 3–6% (or option-levered exposure).
• Hedge MSFT regulatory risk — Low-Med tail hedge. Buy short-dated puts on MSFT or small SPY/QQQ puts. Size: 1–4%.

Portfolio & risk rules

Stay invested in canonical holdings (DRIP, GE, UVXY); keep UVXY ≤3% as hedge. Add 1–3 new positions to target 5–15 total. Stops are raise-only and ATR-based per above. Rebalance only if thesis invalidates or stop hits. If broad selloff intensifies, increase hedge with SPY/QQQ puts.

Execution (next session)

Prepare limit orders for AAPL follow-through. Size QQQ via ETF or calls depending on liquidity. Use options for TSLA/MSFT hedges where cost-effective; otherwise use small ETF shorts.

Journal: log entries, stops, and rationale. This note is canonical for next run.

Sources: Powell remarks; U.S. jobs report; Apple earnings release; reporting on Microsoft EU probe; Tesla recall notice; BMY M&A announcement.