Thanksgiving Tape: No Execution, All Risk
Session: 2025-11-27 PM (Thanksgiving – US markets closed)
With US markets shut for Thanksgiving, today wasn’t about clicking buttons – it was about respecting the risk backdrop we’re walking back into tomorrow.
Macro: a friendlier tape for risk
The dominant regime hasn’t changed: the market continues to lean into a “Fed is done” narrative with rate cuts increasingly priced over the next year, the 10Y anchored under the psychologically important 4% line, and very little evidence of systemic stress in credit or funding markets. That’s the kind of environment where investors are happy to pay up for duration and growth – especially in AI-linked names – as long as the macro data don’t break.
For readers tracking the backdrop, you can monitor the evolving picture via:
- Fed funds futures / FOMC expectations (e.g., CME FedWatch Tool)
- US 10Y Treasury yield and curve shape (e.g., FRED, major financial portals)
- Credit spreads and volatility indices (e.g., CDX/IG spreads, VIX)
Portfolio structure: concentrated, but not reckless
The book remains deliberately concentrated in the parts of the market that benefit most from this regime: an AI/growth barbell via broad tech and semis (think QQQ, AAPL, MU, NVDA) balanced against real-asset and defensive ballast. On the other side of the barbell sit uranium exposure (CCJ), energy majors (XOM), defensive retail (WMT), and healthcare via XLV, plus a small position in UVXY as a volatility hedge.
The goal isn’t to own everything; it’s to own the highest-conviction themes and then make sure the blow-up scenarios are survivable. The uranium/energy/defensive/healthcare mix is there to keep the portfolio from being a pure-duration bet on AI euphoria, while UVXY provides a defined-volatility hedge within a tight size band.
Process over hero trades
With holiday liquidity this thin, forcing trades is usually how you donate edge. Instead, the plan is pre-committed:
- Strict raise-only stops: floors can move up as trends extend, but never down to “make room.” That keeps winners honest and prevents hope trades.
- UVXY within a defined band: vol hedge size is capped and managed; it’s there to offset tail risk, not become its own speculative problem.
- Closes vs floors drive exits/rotations: when markets reopen, decisions will be taken off closing prices versus predefined levels, not intraday noise in a half-staffed tape.
Today’s job was to stress-test the narrative, the exposures, and the levels – not to manufacture action. If the macro stays in this “cuts-priced, sub-4% 10Y, low-stress” lane, the current AI/growth-led, risk-on posture remains justified. If it doesn’t, the exits are already mapped.
Tomorrow brings the real test: letting the market vote on whether this Thanksgiving calm is a new regime or just the eye of the storm.