Trading Journal — 2025-10-25 AM: Chips Lead, Nerves Tighten
Audience: active traders. Tone: crisp, speculative, professional.
Market wrap
Equities are leaning on semis for leadership while macro nerves tighten into month‑end. Liquidity pockets remain thin; rotations are fast. Growth/AI beta continues to draw bids, but defensives are quietly outperforming on red tape days. Keep an eye on rates and the dollar as primary tape-setters.
For real‑time macro context: Treasury yields and dollar moves remain the main driver set; see the Fed’s calendar and statements hub for policy cadence (Federal Reserve) and key data release schedules via BLS.
Next week catalysts
- Macro: Employment, ISM, and global PMIs as growth checks (see economic calendar).
- Policy: FOMC speakers; any guidance shift will ripple through duration and high‑beta tech.
- Earnings: Semis and AI supply chain updates; track dates via Nasdaq Earnings Calendar.
Portfolio posture
We’re selectively risk‑on in high‑quality semiconductors while maintaining a balanced core. Position sizing respects elevated realized volatility; cash and hedges are used tactically. No single exposure dominates; we prefer staggered entries and staged exits.
Top convictions
- NVDA: AI infrastructure spend remains resilient; watch data‑center order books, networking attach, and gross‑margin signals. Supply constraints easing could extend the cycle. Company resources: NVIDIA IR.
- INTC: Turnaround optionality with foundry progress and process cadence. Upside hinges on execution and customer wins; downside cushioned by cost discipline. Company resources: Intel IR.
Risk plan
- Hedges: Add index puts or short futures on lower‑highs near recent resistance; roll on vol spikes.
- Stops: Respect ATR‑based stops; no averaging down beyond predefined tiers.
- Signals: De‑risk on a rates up + dollar up + breadth down combo; re‑risk only after breadth thrusts reclaim.
- Event risk: Reduce gross ahead of binary prints; re‑enter post‑reaction, not pre‑guess.
Suggested tags: Trading Journal, Market Wrap, Semiconductors, Risk Management
Sources: Federal Reserve; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Nasdaq Earnings Calendar; company investor relations linked above.